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technologies require large amounts of minerals. Whilst this is of course true, we demonstrate that they require far less material than fossil fuel technologies because renewables are used for decades whilst fossil fuels are burnt only once. Electricity from coal for example requires 2,000 times as much material as electricity from solar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/e44cd4f3-65ec-48d8-9e28-4a6fdcfaf1ef/oil-production-France.jpeg Myths of the incumbency - The Decline Rate Delusion Incumbents like to argue that decline rates necessitate high prices and continuous expansion. However, the world has plenty of oil, and decline rates can be managed. As the IEA noted, no new oil and gas fields are needed under the Paris Agreement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/01bb7c7f-43ea-445f-aeaa-4acee91d8788/pipes.jpeg Myths of the incumbency - Myths of the transition: Hard-to-abate sectors prevent an energy transition Incumbents like to argue that the hard to solve sectors like petchem or flying will stop the energy transition. In reality, these sectors represent only 20% of primary energy demand, and can be solved at the end of the energy transition. They are no barrier to peaking fossil fuel demand in the system as a whole. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/7d1c6f8f-d4d1-4da9-8357-e64bf7d7f722/solar-panels-in-field.jpeg Myths of the incumbency - The IEA Calls Time on the Fossil Fuel Era For many years, the IEA failed to understand or model the exponential growth of new energy technologies. In 2021 they changed their approach and started to incorporate this core driver. The result was a recognition of peaking fossil fuel demand and a disruptive decade in the 2020s. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/b2172379-6b1a-4613-80dc-c1b9b1f5dfd9/wind-turbines-on-hills.jpeg Myths of the incumbency - The new energy transition: History is bunk The orthodox view of the energy transition is that it will be long and slow and have limited impact on the incumbents. However, the issue for investors is not how long it takes to go from 80% market share to zero. By the time you get to zero it is obviously too late to sell, so the real issue is when do you reach a peak. The reality for investors is that technology transitions happen rapidly and incumbents rarely survive them. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/80883731-c79d-43a3-ade0-9e945b494b8f/wind-turbines-in-field.jpeg Myths of the incumbency - Myths of the transition: The intermittency of renewables prevents an energy transition Incumbents like to argue that the intermittency of solar and wind will prevent an energy transition. The reality is that the tipping point for peak in demand for fossil fuels in electricity is reached long before you reach the limits to renewable deployment. And over time, the ceiling of the possible of deployment of solar and wind keeps rising as the result of better forecasting, demand side management, supply side management, batteries and so on. Whilst the world as a whole has only 10% solar and wind today, countries and regions like Denmark, South Australia or Ireland have exceeded 50% variable renewables and are already planning for 100%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/3148e020-7ec4-4147-a0f3-f185d72cdecf/solar-panels-on-a-mountain.jpeg Myths of the incumbency - Myths of the transition: Renewables are too small to matter Incumbents like to argue that renewables are too small to matter. The reality is that disruption for the incumbents comes when challenges get to a market share of around 3%. Which is where we are now. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/cb537168-871e-459e-bbec-f25b7bac9e60/solar-panels-at-sunset-against-buildings.jpeg Myths of the incumbency - Consensus energy forecasts: Why they are wrong Incumbents like to argue that solar and wind growth will be linear because costs are high. In reality, costs are low and falling on learning curves, and growth is exponential. The gap between linear and exponential growth makes all the difference. https://www.kingsmillbond.com/growth daily 0.75 2025-01-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/0754162a-8592-47b1-bc44-20b9ea4a2eb5/the-learning-rates-chart.jpg Growth - Make it stand out Chart Source: Oxford University INET Group https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/e1a4a274-4bef-4417-b5e4-aa1eee585feb/carbon-tracker-solar-panels.png Growth - Reach for the Sun: The emerging market electricity leapfrog Emerging markets are leapfrogging directly to renewable energy because it is cheaper, cleaner, and local. That means global fossil fuel demand for electricity peaked in 2018. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/afcc88e0-1a6a-4714-aab4-93a7a95bdd26/coins-with-clock.jpeg Growth - Carbon Tax – an idea whose time has come If capitalism wants to survive, it will need to tax carbon. Or end up like the Soviet Union a victim of its internal contradictions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/255bd3c6-1fef-4a42-9630-b0922debe43d/solar-panels-in-the-desert.jpeg Growth - The Speed of the Energy Transition There are two main narratives on the speed of the energy transition - gradual and rapid. Whilst incumbents like to argue for gradual change, in fact rapid change is much more likely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/972939d4-6bff-47f9-99a8-901db7378c7d/solar-panels-at-dawn.jpeg Growth - The dawn of the age of solar The EROI (energy return on investment) of renewables is higher (better) than that of fossil fuels, and still rising. This means a shift to the age of solar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/974c1dc4-66c0-4d81-8c06-699835c19233/american-public-power-association.jpeg Growth - The Renewable Spring The energy transition is the sixth great technology revolution since 1750. As in previous technology shifts, capital will follow the new growth opportunity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/def7ba0a-3028-4380-8ef9-e9a523975d86/solar-panels-in-snow.jpeg Growth - The political tipping point: Why the politics of energy will follow the economics As renewables get cheaper so they become more attractive for politicians to support. That speeds up change. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/41dee684-7b05-4e60-b027-76767592fd31/Windmill-at-Modou-Mountain-Yunnan-China.jpeg Growth - China: Leader of the new energy future Why China is likely to win the race to the new energy future. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/111c1b4c-11ac-410d-b5bf-9cbdff5cb324/wind-turbines-in-the-sea.jpg Growth - Can a virus and viral ideas speed the world’s journey beyond fossil fuels? A paper with Amory Lovins. Efficiency gains and the rapid growth of new energy technologies are likely to mean peak demand for fossil fuels https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/1b2d7f1f-810f-4cd7-aa3c-2b9a2c55eb5a/japanese-bus-driving-up-a-mountain.jpeg Growth - Nothing to lose but your chains: The emerging market transport leapfrog Emerging markets are poised to leapfrog to electricity based transport systems. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/37c34a5c-3eb3-44bb-8b65-827d2944c5af/Sarah-Bond-Art-Renewable-Energy-Winds-of-Change-I.jpeg Growth - The Sky’s the Limit: Solar and wind energy potential is 100 times as much as global energy demand Renewable energy can provide the world with 100 times its current energy demand and more than 100 times fossil fuel supply. We show the renewable energy potential by country and region. https://www.kingsmillbond.com/about-old daily 0.75 2025-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/c2695529-6585-4be5-82b7-6ae2029c888e/kingsmill-bond-headshot.png About - About Kingsmill Bond, CFA is an Energy Strategist at the Rocky Mountain Institute. He is also a member of the Global Future Council on Energy Transition for the World Economic Forum, an adviser to Carbon Tracker, and a Research Affiliate at the Sustainable Finance Programme at the University of Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. Kingsmill has worked as a sell-side City equity analyst and strategist for over 25 years, including for Deutsche Bank, Sberbank and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow. He believes that the energy transition is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. He has an MA in history from Cambridge University, qualified as an accountant (CIMA), and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) qualification. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/6a232fac-2b6b-4a29-a711-43032b8e6c99/our-hope-for-years-to-come-sarah-bond.png About - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.kingsmillbond.com/about daily 1.0 2025-02-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/c2695529-6585-4be5-82b7-6ae2029c888e/kingsmill-bond-headshot.png Kingsmill Bond | Energy strategist - About Kingsmill Bond, CFA is an Energy Strategist at the Rocky Mountain Institute. He is also a member of the Global Future Council on Energy Transition for the World Economic Forum, an adviser to Carbon Tracker, and a Research Affiliate at the Sustainable Finance Programme at the University of Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. Kingsmill has worked as a sell-side City equity analyst and strategist for over 25 years, including for Deutsche Bank, Sberbank and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow. He believes that the energy transition is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. He has an MA in history from Cambridge University, qualified as an accountant (CIMA), and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) qualification. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/9ef04755-d4c0-4b5a-a971-231bc42f84da/solar-panel-array-field-1700x1175.jpg Kingsmill Bond | Energy strategist - The presentation The Cleantech Revolution | RMI It’s exponential, disruptive, and now. By Kingsmill Bond, Sam Butler-Sloss, and Daan Walter https://www.kingsmillbond.com/impact-on-existing daily 0.75 2022-01-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/600fde99-8437-4a28-9f2d-a5cf0e92a158/global-primary-energy-chart.jpg Impact on existing - Make it stand out Chart source: Rystad 1.6 degree scenario https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/5f1bd46c-9691-4f7f-a8cd-31a8c86847ea/wind-turbines-near-mountains.jpeg Impact on existing - A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transition Written with IRENA. The energy transition will have a dramatic impact on geopolitics as it reduces the influence of petrostates, enables energy independence for fossil fuel importers and enhances the power of new energy technology exporters. Read the report Download the PDF https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/c17954cc-f581-4580-9c78-e7a1401a7eb7/plastic-water-bottles.jpg Impact on existing - The Future’s Not in Plastics: Why plastics demand won’t rescue the oil sector Plastics impose a huge unpaid externality cost on society of around $1,000 per tonne. As governments start to address this, so plastics demand will stop rising. This will create huge stranded assets and peak oil demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/2969951b-11fb-4e85-a7d1-884cc56e4b74/the-end-of-the-ice-age.jpeg Impact on existing - The end of the ICE age Written in 2017, this piece argued that demand for conventional cars was about to peak, implying automotive sector disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/ca6a64bd-f631-471e-a1e2-4a405e4daf27/renewables_windturbines-netherlands_sunset.jpeg Impact on existing - Decline and Fall: The Size & Vulnerability of the Fossil Fuel System The fossil fuel system has tens of trillions of dollars of fixed assets and is linked to around a quarter of the equity market, half the bond market, and half US bank syndicated loads. We set out the size and vulnerability of the system and explain why disruption strikes at the peak of fossil fuel demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/76a82a85-61d6-4c85-a946-1feccdc11194/solar-panels-at-sunset.jpeg Impact on existing - COVID-19 and the energy transition: crisis as midwife to the new Cyclical shocks like COVID tend to speed up ongoing structural change. So COVID is likely to bring forward the peak of fossil fuel demand to 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/2acbc34d-be93-4abf-b256-226464781843/aerial-image-of-solar-panels-in-countryside.jpeg Impact on existing - Was 2019 the peak of the fossil fuel era? The IEA's latest projections imply peak fossil fuel demand was indeed 2019. https://www.kingsmillbond.com/market-reaction daily 0.75 2024-04-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/6baf2821-6569-4638-99cb-2d864e9c585f/coal-sector-performance-v-demand-chart-bloomberg.png Market reaction - Make it stand out Chart source: Bloomberg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/4b23de7b-e00d-4af7-9b21-03307cd35d3c/Circular_Cities_Declaration.jpeg Market reaction - Spiralling Disruption: The feedback loops of the energy transition Peak demand for fossil fuels kicks off virtuous and vicious feedback loops, which hasten change. We set out the seven areas of feedback loops: costs, technology, expectations, finance, society, politics and geopolitics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/a8cda53a-ab24-4f55-8ec1-cea997224b11/marginal-change-market.jpeg Market reaction - Marginal change moves markets It is marginal change that moves markets. Investors and incumbents cannot rely upon size but must think about growth. The historical record is replete with examples of incumbents disrupted at their moment of greatest size. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/efaea71d-6fc2-457e-85ff-d95f27ecd726/pylons-at-sunset.jpeg Market reaction - Lessons from European electricity for global oil & gas One of the first sectors to be disrupted by the energy transition was European electricity after 2008. We set out the story of that disruption and deduce some lessons for the oil and gas sector. https://www.kingsmillbond.com/test-page-two daily 0.75 2022-01-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/600fde99-8437-4a28-9f2d-a5cf0e92a158/global-primary-energy-chart.jpg Test page two - Make it stand out Chart source: Rystad 1.6 degree scenario https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/ca6a64bd-f631-471e-a1e2-4a405e4daf27/renewables_windturbines-netherlands_sunset.jpeg Test page two - Decline and Fall: The Size & Vulnerability of the Fossil Fuel System The fossil fuel system has tens of trillions of dollars of fixed assets and is linked to around a quarter of the equity market, half the bond market, and half US bank syndicated loads. We set out the size and vulnerability of the system and explain why disruption strikes at the peak of fossil fuel demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/76a82a85-61d6-4c85-a946-1feccdc11194/solar-panels-at-sunset.jpeg Test page two - COVID-19 and the energy transition: crisis as midwife to the new Cyclical shocks like COVID tend to speed up ongoing structural change. So COVID is likely to bring forward the peak of fossil fuel demand to 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/c17954cc-f581-4580-9c78-e7a1401a7eb7/plastic-water-bottles.jpg Test page two - The Future’s Not in Plastics: Why plastics demand won’t rescue the oil sector Plastics impose a huge unpaid externality cost on society of around $1,000 per tonne. As governments start to address this, so plastics demand will stop rising. This will create huge stranded assets and peak oil demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/5f1bd46c-9691-4f7f-a8cd-31a8c86847ea/wind-turbines-near-mountains.jpeg Test page two - A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transition Written with IRENA. The energy transition will have a dramatic impact on geopolitics as it reduces the influence of petrostates, enables energy independence for fossil fuel importers and enhances the power of new energy technology exporters. Read the report Download the PDF https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/2969951b-11fb-4e85-a7d1-884cc56e4b74/the-end-of-the-ice-age.jpeg Test page two - The end of the ICE age Written in 2017, this piece argued that demand for conventional cars was about to peak, implying automotive sector disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/2acbc34d-be93-4abf-b256-226464781843/aerial-image-of-solar-panels-in-countryside.jpeg Test page two - Was 2019 the peak of the fossil fuel era? The IEA's latest projections imply peak fossil fuel demand was indeed 2019. https://www.kingsmillbond.com/media daily 0.75 2025-01-31 https://www.kingsmillbond.com/talks daily 0.75 2025-01-31 https://www.kingsmillbond.com/conference-resources daily 0.75 2025-01-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/61ade000428d796084337ce6/c2695529-6585-4be5-82b7-6ae2029c888e/kingsmill-bond-headshot.png Conference resources - About Kingsmill Bond, CFA is an Energy Strategist at the Rocky Mountain Institute. He is also a member of the Global Future Council on Energy Transition for the World Economic Forum, an adviser to Carbon Tracker, and a Research Affiliate at the Sustainable Finance Programme at the University of Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. Kingsmill has worked as a sell-side City equity analyst and strategist for over 25 years, including for Deutsche Bank, Sberbank and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow. He believes that the energy transition is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. He has an MA in history from Cambridge University, qualified as an accountant (CIMA), and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) qualification.