Kingsmill Bond is an energy strategist at the Rocky Mountain Institute who has been working for many years on the impact of the energy transition on financial markets.
This website brings together a number of reports, presentations and media articles on the energy transition that Kingsmill Bond has worked on over the last few years.
The story of the energy transition is set out in three parts: the drivers of change; the impact of the change on existing companies; and the market reaction to change.
There is then a separate section on the myths of the incumbency. These are often arguments injected by incumbents into the public debate in order to try to maintain the status quo.
The overview section summarises the story and includes links to a number of external reports and books on the energy transition.
The views expressed are his own.
Chart source: Carbon Tracker
This stylised graph summarises the story of the energy transition.
As new energy technologies like solar and wind grow rapidly, they drive a peak in demand for fossil fuels. The peak in demand comes very early in the transition and rapidly creates stranded assets. Because markets know this, they derate incumbents even before peak demand and rerate challengers at the start of their growth.
The elevator pitch
A 60 second overview of the argument.
The impact of the energy transition on financial markets
A longer presentation on the impact of the energy transition on financial markets
Key Reports
Volts podcast: the good news about clean energy, with Kingsmill Bond
A podcast with David Roberts. The transition from fossil fuels to renewables will have dramatic consequences for financial markets this decade
2020 Vision: why you should see the fossil fuel peak coming
Written in 2018, this piece sets out why the rapid growth in new energy technologies will have such a major impact on financial markets in the 2020s.
Gain not pain: why COP must move the narrative forward
The energy transition to cheap, plentiful and local sources of renewable energy means huge gains for society. The narrative needs to change to reflect that
The Energy Transition Show Podcast
A podcast with Chris Nelder. There are no fundamental limits to the continued exponential growth of renewables for years to come.
The A-Z of the Energy Transition: Knowns and Unknowns
We look at the areas of relative certainty in the energy transition (the knowns), driven largely by technology and market forces. And then at the areas of greater complexity (the unknowns) mostly related to questions of political economy
The Trillion Dollar Energy Windfall
The fall in the costs of renewable energy technologies is creating a huge energy windfall for those who take advantage of it
A Future Without Fossil Fuels?
An article by Bill McKibben. It compares the fossil fuel transition to previous technology transitions such as canals to railways or horses to cars.
Revolution not evolution
The orthodox view that the energy transition will be slow and manageable is incorrect. Because markets are driven by marginal change, which happens much more rapidly than system change.
Useful links
There are many thousands of excellent books and reports on the energy transition. I select a few of these below, mainly based on the links that people ask me for. This is not meant to be comprehensive. But to give a flavour of some of the analysis available with a limit of one report per organisation.
Books
The innovator's dilemma – Christensen
Heat power and light – Fouquet
100% clean renewable energy and storage for everything – Jacobson
Foragers, farmers, and fossil fuels – Morris
Engines that move markets – Nairn
Technological revolutions and financial capital – Perez
Reports
Larry Fink letter to CEOs – Blackrock
New Energy Outlook 2021 – BNEF
Accelerating the low carbon transition – Brookings
Sensitive intervention points – CCC
Energy Transition Outlook – DNV
Global renewables outlook 2050 – IRENA
Global energy perspective 2021 – McKinsey
Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition – Oxford
Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 – Rethink X